baseball pythagorean theorem applied to nfl winning percentages
In my Sportistics class, I conducted an incisive analysis of the 2021 NFL season using the Pythagorean Theorem with a fine-tuned exponent to predict team winning percentages. My evaluation revealed an average predictive accuracy of 6.14%, indicating that most teams' actual wins were closely aligned with the model's forecasts.
Key to my analysis was identifying outliers — teams whose performance significantly deviated from predictions. This examination shed light on the impact of various factors like player injuries and team strategies on game outcomes.
Further, I scrutinized playoff performances, particularly focusing on teams that had overperformed in the regular season. My findings indicated that a majority of these teams did not sustain their unexpected success in the playoffs, aligning with the concept of regression towards the mean.
Additionally, I explored the concept of "net points" to gain deeper insights into team performance and competitive balance within the league. This approach enriched my understanding of how regular-season achievements translated into playoff results.